MODERATE TO HEAVY WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...SRN
OH...NRN KY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 021132Z - 021730Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
ENEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL
ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...PARCELS LIFTED ALONG AN EXTENSIVE 25-40-KT LLJ
EMANATING FROM THE SRN PLAINS /PER VWP DATA/ ARE REACHING THEIR
LFC/S OVER SRN/ERN MO WHERE LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RECENT
BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ROOTED ABOVE A SHALLOW COLD DOME THAT CONTINUES TO OOZE SWD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND RECENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE 32F ISOTHERM
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER. SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD S OF
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BENEATH THE PERSISTENT ASCENT FOCUSED BETWEEN THE 285K AND
300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. AND...AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO BREED AMPLE
NEWD-DIRECTED FLUXES OF MOISTURE WITH UPSTREAM PW OF 0.75-1 INCH PER
GPS DATA...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND YIELD MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SLEET WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NRN
PARTS OF THE MCD AREA AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
CORES...WITH FREEZING RAIN MORE LIKELY SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOTH SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MCD AREA GIVEN
PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS IN A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED
WARM LAYER. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.10-0.30 INCH PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES
LOCALLY/BRIEFLY REACHING ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. AS
SUCH...SUBSTANTIAL ICING COULD ENSUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WILL ACCOMPANY
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES.

..COHEN.. 03/02/2014


ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
SGF...

LAT...LON   37188946 37019122 37219328 37879349 38349254 39508777
            39858389 39718202 39318184 38668243 37978486 37188946