…Potential Weekend Storm System…

From the NWS in Louisville:

The latest forecasts indicate that a low-pressure system will develop over the Gulf states Friday night, and will move toward the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday.  This system looks to bring a good chance for precipitation, mainly on Saturday, but the type of precipitation highly depends on the track of the low pressure center.  If the low pressure tracks further north, it would produce mostly rain for the area.  If it tracks further south, it would produce mostly snow for the area.
 
Track further north…

 
Track further south…

 
Stayed tuned to the latest forecasts on this weekend storm system by viewing the following links:

  • Area Forecast Discussion
  • Hazardous Weather Outlook

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

/O.NEW.KLMK.FF.A.0001.071210T0120Z-071210T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY- SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY- WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-JESSAMINE KY- CLARK KY-MADISON KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…JEFFERSONVILLE… LA GRANGE…BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT… GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…LEXINGTON… PARIS…CARLISLE…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…RICHMOND 820 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY… INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN INDIANA…CLARK IN… JEFFERSON IN AND SCOTT IN. IN KENTUCKY…ANDERSON KY…BOURBON KY…CLARK KY…FAYETTE KY…FRANKLIN KY…HARRISON KY…HENRY KY…JESSAMINE KY…MADISON KY…NICHOLAS KY…OLDHAM KY… SCOTT KY…SHELBY KY…TRIMBLE KY AND WOODFORD KY.
* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TO THE AREA IN A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE A RAPID RISE OF STREAMS AND CREEKS AND COULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE FLOOD DANGERS. IF YOU OBSERVE FLOODING…ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN.

Snow Advisory

INZ079-KYZ036-037-042-043-051730-
/O.CON.KLMK.SN.Y.0009.071205T1100Z-071205T2000Z/
JEFFERSON IN-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MADISON…GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA…
PARIS…CARLISLE
428 AM EST WED DEC 5 2007
…SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON…
A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK…A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MADISON INDIANA
TO PARIS KENTUCKY. LIGHT SNOW MOVED INTO THE ADVISORY AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH RAIN. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY IN GRASSY AREAS AND ON ROOFTOPS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
CLIPPER TRACK WOULD RESULT IN CHANGES TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO POSE AN INCONVENIENCE TO TRAVELERS. ROADS MAY
BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS…WITH SNOW AND ICE FIRST DEVELOPING
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION
THIS MORNING.
$$
SCHOLZ
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT – SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT

/O.NEW.KLMK.SN.Y.0009.071205T1100Z- 071205T2000Z/ JEFFERSON IN-SCOTT KY- HARRISON KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MADISON… GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA… PARIS… CARLISLE 342 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2007

…SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK…A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MADISON INDIANA TO PARIS KENTUCKY. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE CLIPPER TRACK WOULD RESULT IN CHANGES TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO POSE AN INCONVENIENCE TO TRAVELERS. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS…WITH SNOW AND ICE FIRST DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Snow – 3 inches?

Maybe…. but no good forecast yet…
Chris Bailey writes in the weather blog:

Areas along the Ohio River from Covington to Ashland are now in the 2″-4″ area. This would include cities such as Maysville, Vanceburg and Greenup. 1-3″ line runs along and north of a line from Carrollton to Cynthiana to Morehad to Paintsville to the northern half of Pike County. South of that line to a line from Shelbyville to Berea to Harlan is the area I have with an inch or less. Areas south of that line will likely be dealing with more in the way of showers and a mix which would change over to snow before ending.

A final call will be coming later this evening with perhaps another adjustment before then.

A couple of points…

1. It’s all about the track of the low.

2. Big temp split for a few hours Wednesday will place the N and NE in the low 30s and the south into the 40s.

3. Temps crash by late in the day meaning everyone goes over to snow before the system pulls away.

4. We don’t have to be below freezing for it to snow. But, it helps! 😉

5. The ground temps are coming down but still above freezing.

6. My in house RPM model has gone way south and now shows 3″ for Lexington. Can we trust it? We will see.

7. Wherever the snow falls… there will be a sharp cutoff to the accumulating snow on the southern edge.

8. I expect more counties to be added to the Snow Advisory already out for the north.

More updates to come through the day and evening.

So, who wants to go get some milk and bread? And while you’re out, pick up some for me, too…

Special Weather Statement – Harrison (Kentucky)

LA GRANGE…BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…
SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…
LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…
BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…
WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…
RICHMOND…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…LIBERTY…STANFORD…
TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…
ALBANY
849 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2007 /749 PM CST SUN DEC 2 2007/
…A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS…
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
IT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS.
PEOPLE IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 CAN
EXPECT THESE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT
EST…8 AND 11 PM CST. WIND GUST SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
BE SURE TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IF
YOU ARE OUT ON THE WET ROADS…ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE IN A HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLE…USE CAUTION ON NORTH SOUTH ROADS SUCH AS
INTERSTATE 65 AND THE NATCHER PARKWAY.
$$
13
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

Short Term Forecast – Harrison (Kentucky)

FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA…
LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…
SPRINGFIELD…HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…STANFORD
137 PM EST MON NOV 26 2007
.NOW…
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 4 PM EST. THE HEAVIEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN… GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
IF DRIVING WATCH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND UNDERPASSES.
$$
JA
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

Possible winter weather event this weekend…

It might be a good idea for all of us in the central Kentucky area to start watching the weather forecasts, and preparing for some fun conditions this weekend. WKYT’s Chris Bailey writes:

The GFS raw numbers for Sunday give Lexington a high of 33… Covington 28… Ashland 34 and Jackson 36. All locations start out as snow… go to sleet and freezing rain and a touch of rain for all areas except Covington then back to snow Sunday Night. Snow showers and squalls then would continue early next week as arctic air moves into the state. Regardless of what this low does in terms of snow for us… I am excited for next week and the potential for several snow producing clippers to drop in.

Now, before anyone attacks me for posting bad info, or attacks the poor weatherman for forecasting an event which may/may not take place, please read this disclaimer:

Now… as always… I want to get one point across. I AM BREAKING DOWN A MODEL AND THIS IS NOT A SPECIFIC FORECAST! It is waaaaaaay to early to get specific on a situation like this.

One thing is certain, though — it’ll be cold and wet.
So, regardless of whether we are slammed with anything, it’d still be a good idea to go ahead and prepare. Keep your vehicle’s gas tank full, throw a few blankets in the car, make sure you have your bread and milk at home, and go ahead and dig that shovel and salt out of the corner of the garage.
…and now, for the shameless plug. Over at the EMA site, HarrisonEMA.com, I have a few tips on winter weather preparedness. FEMA also has some nice information, as does the National Weather Service.


Short Term Forecast – Harrison (Kentucky)

OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. FLURRIES MAY MIX WITH SPRINKLES…SLEET OR ICE PELLETS AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATION OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL WINTER PRECIPITATION…GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH…WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AT AND BELOW 30 DEGREES
AT TIMES.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING…THOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage

Short Term Forecast – Harrison (Kentucky)

FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…CYNTHIANA…
LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…LANCASTER…RICHMOND
911 AM EST THU NOV 15 2007
.NOW…
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN…SLEET AND ICE PELLETS HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
LEXINGTON. THIS LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPORADICALLY CONTINUE AT
LEXINGTON AND THE REST OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ACCUMULATE NOR AFFECT
VISIBILITIES.
$$
JSD
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage