We may be in store for some fun weather beginning on Monday and heading into Wednesday. For about a week the NWS has been pointing at a chance of ice, and as of tonight, things still look that way:
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... ...ICY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... UNLESS THE MODELS MAKE A HUGE CHANGE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SITUATION ACROSS OUR NWRN FCST AREA (CWA) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY MORNING...EURO AND GFS HAVE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS OUR CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER SOME QPF EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING ALL DAY ON MONDAY. SO MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY HIGHS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL TEMPS/ THICKNESSES WILL DROP ENOUGH TO CREATE A RAIN/FZ RAIN MIX ACROSS OUR NW MONDAY AFTN-EVE. BY 00Z TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA... WITH RAIN STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SERN HALF...AND A SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS TIME IF MORE SNOW THAN FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR...BUT DEFINITELY ADVISORY-TYPE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ONLY QUESTION MARK IS THAT THE GFS GIVES OUR NWRN A LULL IN THE PRECIP... AND IT WOULD JUST BE LIGHT PRECIP IF ANYTHING IF IT VERIFIES. THIS LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE OVERRUNNING PRECIP FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING UP FROM THE SW. THE EURO AND NAM KEEP THE HEAVIER POST- FRONTAL PRECIP AROUND LONGER AND IF THEY VERIFY THEN WE ARE IN FOR A TREACHEROUS TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
…and my favorite forecaster has some better words on this over at his blog. Check out these links to Chris Bailey’s thoughts and some better graphics representing what we might be facing:
http://kyweathercenter.com/2008/12/12/a-wow-week-of-weather-ahead.aspx
http://kyweathercenter.com/2008/12/13/buckle-up-for-the-ride.aspx
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